3 Big Reasons We Haven’t Seen a Mavic 3……Endnu
Why haven't we seen a brand new mavic 3 from dji. Yet now i did a clip about a week ago and in that clip i tried to make the case for not waiting for the mavic 3, because i feel like the joy of flight is something you should experience today. So if you haven't bought a drone waiting for that next big thing to hit means you're going to miss all that time up in the air. So i tried to make the case for you to buy anything. You can fly today, get it up in the air and then, if the mavic 3 comes out, you can take a look at it and either sell the drone you bought or decide to upgrade later on. But in the meantime you can get up in the air and start flying well, once i published that clip, i got a ton of questions asking me two things: what do you think the mavic 3 is going to look like and when do you think we're going To see it now, i can't put all that in one clip, so i've got another clip coming where i explain exactly what i think will be in that mavic 3, but i thought today, i'd sit down and talk about why the mavic 3 seems to be taking Longer than a normal release from dji, now again i have no inside information on any of this, but i'm a nerd i'm an engineer.
I study the technology and i've been watching the evolution of this technology over the last eight or ten years, and really understand some of the hurdles that dji has to jump through today and some of the other companies as well. So what i'm going to give you? I think are three big reasons with facts behind them of why we're not seeing the mavic 3 within the two year span, i mean obviously has been out a couple of years, so we would expect it a mavic 3 to hit but there's a couple of reasons. I don't think that products on the market today and i'll go through those individually. Så, to start with, i think the biggest reason we're not seeing it is political there's, a lot of politics involved in drones. They become very, very popular out in the marketplace. A lot of consumers are flying and there's a lot of goofballs flying i'm, causing issues for the rest of us that fly them right and i think politically, the challenge is people have to deal with that, so the faa has got responsibility for the airspace from the Grounds to the heavens and they've got to address that, because obviously there's airplanes up there and we're flying drones up there and the more drones you get out the more chances there are of that drone introducing itself to an airplane. So the faa is involved with that. But the problem is local communities, get involved as well, so you've got township boards and you've got school boards and you've got other people that are responsible for small sections of the country that have decided to take it upon themselves to govern what these things do.
So the politics are thick around regulations and bans and what should be done? The other aspect of that is you've got the political fight of commercial flights of drones, all the big names out there, Amazon, google, all the ones you want to name that want to deliver packages through drones versus the hobbyist, so there's a huge political battle going on There about how do we share that airspace with commercial flights and, quite frankly, the commercial alliance has got a tremendously good, um sort of board of people that get into washington and they have lobbyists working to sort of sway. The opinion in their favor. So the politics is really thick. The challenge with the politics as well is that right now, the country's in sort of this we're scared of china, mode right and i've, talked about that in the channel before and somehow the drones, especially dji, have been singled out as a gigantic threat to american security. That the chinese are spying on us through drones and i'm being a little glib about that, because if you understand the technology today of what drones can do, this would be the single worst way for anybody to spy on anything in the country and i've gone through. That in detail in another clip but that's out there, so you just saw recently that the president banned tic tac or was going to ban tick tock in the states they're going after the drone. So that really gives the political weight to other companies to take advantage of the commercial market in the states, because again, we're scared of these political considerations.
So companies like the anafi paranafi, som, by the way is built in france, they've, got a major foothold now in the us for commercial enterprise and those type of things. Our good friends over at skydio also make a commercial version of the product it's built in california, but what makes me really amused by all of this is that, Ja, this is built in china, but these two use – Sandsynligvis 90 percent of their parts, come from chinese Factories, so what they're doing is assembling it in france or assembling it in california, but essentially you've got a chinese drone that just happens to be put together in the states. I don't know how there's much difference between those two outside this company being based in china, but again that's the political overtones of it. So i think dji smart and they're waiting they're waiting till after the election, Fordi, Lige nu, this administration that's in place really has a very aggressive stance on china. Some of it is well founded if you look at something like huawei, where they've got access to a network backbone with switches and stuff. I think you really got to take a hard look at that, because there is a chance that, if that technology is being used for wrong purposes, you could have some major issues because it's on the backbone of our internet. These are individual drones that are flying in the sky, rescuing people in the woods or searching for somebody that's lost at sea.
I don't really know what you can do with that data, but anyway the politics is thick, so i think dji would be well advised to wait until after the election to see exactly what happens with the new uh team that come in there and maybe it's going To be the same team, so it's a consideration they have to take into account, but maybe the team's going to change and things will loosen up a little bit, but i think politically there's a lot going on right now. Ud over at, the faa is releasing guidance on what they think needs to happen. To identify these drones when they're flying and there's a couple of proposals out there, i've talked about them at length on the channel. I'Ve got another clip talking about how i think they're going to accommodate those proposals, but the two things that we have to concern ourselves with over the next couple of years are the remote id proposals where the drone has to identify itself in the air and let People know where it's flying and again i've done a clip on that and the other one is a thing called utm, which is the uav traffic management or unmanned traffic management system, which all of the drones are. I kind of have to comply with the politics behind that isn't settled yet so, if you're going to build a product like a brand new mavic 3 and you don't know what the specifications are that you have to adhere to, how do you release a product now To be fair to dji, they've done a lot with their latest iterations, so the mavic air 2 built in adsb, which is a really nice any collision technology that lets the pilot, know that something's going on up there they've also tried really hard to build in geofencing To keep flyers out of areas that they shouldn't be flying in, because legally they're no fly zones or tfrs are an issue.
You can't really fly into those areas with the dji drone and i know that's controversial a lot of people hate it. I like it because it keeps me out of trouble. None of these other guys have messed with that, so there's, no nfcs built in there's really nothing in there about adsb. They haven't done anything to address what the possible remote id would be in the future. So technically, what you've got is a drone that may be compliant or the mavic air 2 may be complying with the new regulations. These guys aren't i'm not sure how they're going to retrofit them because it's technology that's not in the drone when it was born – and you can't add it in the field later on. So getting back to dji they've got to accommodate that now. I'Ve got a couple of suggestions. If i were the product manager for this new mavic 3 coming out, i would build it to be an advanced drone and i'd put a port on it. Someplace that i could upgrade later on physically upgrade hardware or maybe build the hardware in there and know when these things are going and i've got to accommodate that down the road. So there are ways to get around that and i think that's, one of the things that's slowing down the release of the mavic 3 is just not knowing what the political climate is and what the regulations are going to be that they have to adhere to.
With the new drone, so that's a politics, the second is technical and that ties into the politics, Fordi, if you're building a drone today and the faa decides we're going to make every drone out there broadcast its location from the drone pretty easy to do. We'Re also going to make that drone instantaneously update its position over the internet to a central server. Now i've talked again at length about my opposition to the remote id. I think remote id is a good thing as a digital license plate. I don't think you should be asking me to identify where my drone is every second of flight to a central database, that's kept for who who knows how long and can be reviewed later on. I also don't like the fact that consumers can get at my position in 3d space because i don't want to get into a fist fight with some angry field owner that thinks he's got a right to protect the airspace over his field. So i think if you put remote id in this product and you let it broadcast the position where somebody can receive the remote id license plate and then use that if they need to, because if a drone's misbehaving report that but not know who's flying it not Know where they're standing, i think that's a good thing, but either way the politics. Aside of that, the technology behind how that remote id is going to be implemented isn't out, yet it isn't frozen yet they're still going through the proposal they haven't issued.
Anything yet – and i know dji and all the other manufacturers are on some of the councils that talk to the faa. So they probably have a pretty good feel for where it's heading, but without knowing what it's going to look like it's impossible to design a drone. That will adhere to that. These guys have all released new drones, so they're waiting for that regulation to hit when it hits they'll build it probably into their drum sure they will build it into their drones to comply with that. Dji right now is in a ticklish position, because the mavic 3, if it comes out today, may not be compliant with those future technology issues, so that's number one. Nu igen, i think you can fix that by either building in stuff to the drone or the controller or by putting a port on the drone that i can snap something on to later on. If that regulation changes, so it becomes sort of a future proof drone in that respect, where i can upgrade it hardware wise in the field now another way to fix that quite honestly, is that dji could put the communication equipment in the controller. Because again, that regulation says i've got a broadcast from the drone which is done over whatever connection they're using 2.4 eller 5.8 gigahertz they've got it built into the drone. Already matter of fact, if you're flying a dji drone, today there's a section in the application called remote identification where you can put in your name, your phone number and everything and it's being broadcast in the drone, now it's not being used for anything today, but that Technically satisfies that requirement of the faa's broadcast um regulation, so it's already in the drone.
But then how do i connect the drone to the internet? Godt, there's a couple of ways to do that: i'm. Working on a whole separate clip that talks about where i think the future of connection technology for drones is going to go i'm going to give you a hint it's, not going to be 2.4 eller 5.8 it's going to be a standard cellular connection using a sim Card and that'll be done from the controller, so the controller will have a sim card in it that can touch the internet and, if we're forced to sort of show that position at 3d space 24×7, while we're flying that sim card in the controller can broadcast that Over a cellular connection to that central database, so i think what dji could do and i'm kind of acting as a product manager here is build a drone with a sim slot in the controller or maybe a different controller later, when those things are finalized that you Can slide a card in from your favorite phone company and use that to broadcast to the internet to give that position out, so there are ways to get around it, but again none of these other guys are talking about it. Nobody'S talking about developing it now i'm sure buried somewhere in the bowels of their labs and their engineers are working on it. But again what i love so much about this company is they're out front of it. So with the mavic gear 2, which i'm going to talk about a little bit in a minute when i talk about the commercial aspects of things, they've taken that step to say the fa, hasn't decided we're doing everything we can to protect the planes and protect the Flyers from having any kind of dangerous situation occur, they built adsb in and that's something that really nobody else is talking about at this point, if you don't know what that is, i've talked about it on a few clips.
It basically is a receiver in your remote that all the planes that are flying around you have to have adsb broadcast systems in them which basically broadcast the beacon showing their 3d position in space, their altitude, their direction, their speed their airspeed. So in your controller, if somebody's approaching you from over the horizon or behind you, where you don't, know they're coming, maybe it's a low flying farmer, that's going to crop dust, the field or something if they've got 80 sb in the plane, you get a warning on Your controller, you know immediately holy smokes there's a plane coming. I better bring my thing down to 50 feet or something until the plane goes by that's, a huge step forward for avoiding collisions in 3d space, so good on dji for doing that. They'Ve also built in other technologies to keep you out of areas that you're legally not a flood to fly in, and i only get a lot of grief on the channel about talking about no fly zones, but no fly zones are really just a preventative measure. For you breaking the law, the only reason you'd want to have no nfcs on your quad is to fly into an area that you're not supposed to fly, and i know that seems ridiculous. If you live near an airport, you can't fly in your backyard, but nowadays you can fly in your backyard because they've dialed in the nfcs, where they're not that restrictive.
But i always use the analogy that people say well. I should be able to fly wherever i want well think about. If you were driving a car, and you decided, you know what i want to go on to that military base with my drone. Godt, try and drive through the the front gate of an air force base or a marine base with your car and see how far you get before they shoot. The tires out right or nuclear power plant bust through the gate of a nuclear power plant, see how quick security's on you. It should be no different because you're 70 feet in the air, so those nfcs are things that the faa or areas that the faa has regulated as no fly zones. They'Re restricted, don't fly there. The drone prevents you from flying there, so that technology is great. I really believe it'll be pervasive in these other units as well, men alligevel, so technically they've got that issue to deal with and then on top of that, these guys aren't standing still right, so they've got huge competition in the technical space. I talked about the skydio product about being a five year out product. This product shouldn't exist today with its autonomous flight and it's, not just crash avoidance, where it's going to stop before it runs into a tree or try to dodge something. This is actually predicting its path through 3d space, so it's looking at objects in front of it.
It can look at hundreds of objects, recognized as the solid objects and find a gap so it's before you fly there, it's predicting the path through that mess in front of you. So if you as a goofy pilot, decide i'm going into that group of trees over there, this guy already knows how to avoid the trees as it's flying through, so that technology that autonomy of flight technology is so far ahead of anybody else. Today they have to catch up so now the mavic 3, if you're a product manager and you're thinking all right, we got the mavic 3 ready to go it's on the drawing board we're going to produce it. Oh my gosh! What about that autonomous flight? We don't have that go back to the drawing board, so that caused problems for him. This swappable payload over here. The fact that i can pop the camera pop the camera on very easily should be in the mavic 3.. Nu igen, you can change the camera here. It'S a little more complicated, you violate your warranty if you do it, but that is something that should be in there. So those technological innovations are going to force them to reevaluate what the mavic 3 looks like, because they got to compete out in the space and then the third reason i think, it's a little bit later than most people would expect, is the commercial aspects of it. They make a lot of drones and since they released the mavic 2, they came out with the mavic mini at 400.
It'S got so much technology built into it. A lot of consumers can afford that flocked to that and they're flying that. The second one was this mavic air 2, which i mentioned a minute ago. It essentially looks a lot like a mavic, 2 and it's got a lot of the features of the mavic 2, but it's half the price of a mavic 2.. So when you release a product like this, that looks that close to the product that's in the market, how do i compete with that? What would the mavic 3 have to have for me to spend twice as much as i'm spending on the mavic 2.? So a lot of consumers felt that way bought this and they're flying this. So with the mavic 3 it has to be, it has to have a wow factor. There has to be something in there that's different than everything else: that's really revolutionary to force people or should say to encourage people to jump from what they've got to that new product. Some people are going to flock there just because it's new and they love new technology. Myself include it, but it has to have some wow factors in it, because if it's only a little bit better, if it's only a an evolutionary change between the mavic 2 and the mavic 3 they're not going to get the big bang they need plus. Why would you cannibalize your sales on the mavic mini and mavic air 2, which are selling really well? They can't build them fast enough when a new product comes out.
Why would you slow that down so they're going to let it run its course and that's? Hvorfor, i think we're still quite a bit of ways now? I could be wrong on this. It may hit tomorrow, but i still think we're quite a bit away from the mavic 3 and i think, with all the things i've talked about it's difficult to tackle any one of those things right. The political thing is going to make us at least way past the election unless they've got something up their sleeve. I don't know about to be able to upgrade the technology, but the other two are really really difficult and you can't come out with a second grade product and expect people just to buy it because you're dji, not that they would ever do that. Because of all the drones i fly and i fly every one of them. These guys constantly amaze me. So what i'm saying is i wouldn't bet against them. I'M sure they've got some amazing technology in their laps, i'm praying i get one early, so i can play with it and put a clip together and explain what the magic is behind it. But i love all these drones it's just that release from dji the mavic 3 is a challenge for the three reasons i mentioned and i think i'm sure they've got plans to overcome it, but it's going to take a little bit of time. But again my suggestion and my counsel would be if you're not flying today, don't wait for the mavic 3, because even when it comes out, if it's got everything, i've talked about and i'll explain it more in another clip it's going to be way expensive.
So it's going to be at least twice as much as the mavic air 2.. I can't believe they bring that product in for less than 1200, 1500, plus, probably a smart controller that goes along with it, so it's a big investment, whereas these guys in the mavic mini or even smaller, drones that are less than that you can get into them. Today and get up in the air and start flying and you're, probably going to get like 90 of the flight experience of being up there 100 feet off the ground. Looking down at a beautiful lake, so don't wait, buy it but that's. The reason i think there are three reasons i think the mavic 3 is a little bit delayed. So please leave your comments below if you have any questions about anything. I'Ve talked about i'd love to go in more detail in each one of these aspects. So if you find this stuff interesting, Tro mig, i can go into the weeds with this because i'm, a super nerd that way – and i love understanding all of these technologies and explaining them. But i didn't want to make this a 45 minute clip.